Obesity is leveling off in rich countries – but not in poor
An analysis of global trends since the 1980s shows that the rise in obesity has slowed in many high-income countries. The situation has stabilized, and in some cases even declined, although not in lower-income countries, according to a study in Nature.
The analysis is based on over four decades of health data from 200 countries and territories between 1980 and 2024. The study was led by Imperial College London. Co-authors include Annika Rosengren, professor of medicine, and Jenny Kindblom, professor and obesity researcher at the University of Gothenburg.
The results give a more positive picture of the trend than previous reports. The rise in obesity has slowed or leveled off in most high-income countries, despite sharp increases in the late 20th century.
The trend first began to stabilize among school-age children, around the turn of the millennium, followed by adults about a decade later. In some high-income countries – including France, Italy and Portugal – the proportion living with obesity may even have started to decline.
Children first – rapid changes
The researchers no longer want to talk about a worldwide rise in obesity, the situation differs too much between countries. In parallel with developments in the West, obesity is increasing in many low- and middle-income countries, especially in Africa, Asia, Latin America and island nations in the Pacific and the Caribbean.
The differences between countries are influenced by, among other things, the availability and price of healthy food. The researchers behind the study, however, are doubtful whether weight-loss drugs have had any impact on the population level.
Some of the study's most important results are that improvements in high-income countries were usually first seen among children and young people, and that the proportion of people with obesity could change quite rapidly over time, knowledge that can help direct urgent efforts in areas such as health and food policy.
Denmark was the country that experienced the earliest documented slowdown among children and young people, around 1990, followed by other European countries such as Iceland, Switzerland, Belgium and Germany during the 1990s.
By the mid-2000s, the rising rates of obesity among schoolchildren and adolescents in most high-income countries began to stabilize and in some cases decline. The exceptions, based on the data in the study, were children in Australia, Finland and Sweden.
Obesity is still common
“Unfortunately, we can neither confirm nor rule out that this is the reality for Sweden”, says Annika Rosengren, referring to the difficulties in obtaining comprehensive national data in the area.
Although younger children in Sweden are measured and weighed by the school health services, the data is not always made available. Several of the Swedish co-authors also highlight the risk of errors in self-reported data on height and weight for older children.
“What we do know is that there are large regional differences in the prevalence of obesity in Sweden and that obesity in children continues to be one of the most common physical conditions, with a high risk of continued ill health throughout life”, concludes Annika Rosengren.
Study: Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations
