Exploring populism’s new rules for world politics
When populist leaders come to power, they challenge the institutions that have long upheld the global order. Long-term cooperation gives way to “good deals” and power politics. Kilian Spandler wants to understand how this happens – and what may come next.
“What I like the most about my job is trying to weave these complex pictures into stories that make sense, or narratives that provide some meaning to this chaos that we are experiencing,” says Kilian Spandler, senior lecturer in International Relations at the School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg.
In his research he looks specifically on the political communication that takes place away from the spotlight.
“I want to see what’s behind the cracks. The rhetoric at the summits and the formal treaties is always the most polished communication, it is the most cleansed off anything that could give a hint of deeper motivations. So, you have to talk to people who can offer glimpses of behind the scenes.”
To try to understand how foreign policy is actually made, he talks to experts, former officials, advisers and civil society representatives, who in that particular context feel able to provide less polished versions of the communication.
“The important thing is to get a broader picture, hearing multiple voices on things,” says Kilian Spandler.
From long-term cooperation to “good deals”
For decades, the international system has rested on long-term reciprocity: the idea that states benefit from cooperation over time, even when individual negotiations do not bring immediate gains. But this mutual understanding is now severely challenged.
“A prime example is Donald Trump, who always talks about ‘deals’ in his foreign policy. There is no cooperation unless he gets something out of it. And that changes how international politics functions quite a bit, because cooperation becomes less sustainable and more ad hoc,” says Kilian Spandler.
A recurring theme in his research is how populist leaders shift their language between domestic and international arenas. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, for example, was more critical of the EU and international institutions during her election campaign than she later appeared to be in office.
Viktor Orbán, former Prime Minister of Hungary, went even further, mastering what he himself has called a “peacock dance” with the EU: seeking favours in Brussels while continuing to use the institution as a political opponent at home.
The former order is falling apart
Kilan Spandler describes world politics as a moment of transition, in which old structures are crumbling and no clear new order has yet emerged.
“Is it going to be a new realm of power politics, where a couple of major powers try to divide up the world in spheres of interest? Or will there be a new bloc politics between democratic and autocratic countries? Will regions play a bigger role?” says Kilian Spandler.
“Or will we see some new kind of institutions that are better at dealing with a more polarised international system?”
Cracking down on populists can backfire
One way to approach this is to examine how international institutions and governments respond to populist leaders. Strong sanctions or isolation can backfire, because they can help populist leaders portray themselves as victims of hostile foreign elites.
“There is always a need to maintain a certain openness and goodwill from the populists as well, because ultimately cooperation in organisations such as the EU depends on the goodwill of everyone involved to solve common problems,” says Kilian Spandler.
External threats, such as Russia’s aggression in its neighbourhood, also makes European unity strategically important. But at the same time, too little pushback allows obstruction and democratic erosion to continue.
“Right now, we see a lot of middle powers or mid-sized economies trying to team up. For instance, suddenly Canada and Europe are discussing cooperation in a much more comprehensive and strategic way than they used to,” says Kilian Spandler.
International organizations under pressure
Even though this shows resilience, international organisations are increasingly restrained. The world’s ability to respond to global challenges such as the climate crisis or the next pandemic is affected by whether the US is part of the Paris Agreement or the World Health Organisation.
“And when the US withdraws financial support except for very minor contributions to international development aid, people’s lives are in danger. A lot of lifesaving assistance no longer reaches those in need and people die,” says Kilian Spandler.
Difficult for societies to recover
Populist rule can be challenged where there are strong civil society movements and broad support for change. Orbán lost the election in Hungary in April 2026. And in Poland, the populist Law and Justice party, PiS, was voted out in 2023 after eight years in power.
But populist rule can leave damage that outlasts the government itself. In Poland, Kilian Spandler is examining how the former government’s foreign policy continues to affect relations with the outside world.
“The former government, for example, portrayed Germany as this bad dominant neighbour trying to impose its will on Poland. This has created anti-German sentiment among the public, which the new government now has to manage.“
Poland’s government also has to address scepticism towards the EU and Ukrainian refugees in the country, while trying to rebuild relations with international partners. To do so, it sometimes uses the same tactics as the populists.
“This means that politicians speak in different ways to domestic audiences than they do, for example, when they travel to Brussels. It’s hard to balance and maybe, ultimately, the either-or categories of populist and non-populist won’t make so much sense anymore. Maybe we will see something in between emerge,“ says Kilian Spandler.
Text: Linda Genborg
