Climate, conflict and migration

In this 3-year project we will first investigate to what extent climate change has contributed to the spread of Islamic violence in the Sahel, and how this relationship is mitigated by economic and social factors of vulnerability and resilience in local areas. To do so we will combine detailed spatial data on climatic factors, conflict events and resilience factors, and use spatial data statistical techniques and machine learning. We will next collect and analyse unique survey data on coping strategies and drivers of migration among young migrants and non-migrants in Burkina Fasa, a country particularly hard-hit by climate change, conflict and migration.

To understand coping strategies, we will study the preferences, perceived opportunities, and aspirations of Burkinabe youth and investigate how these are affected by climate change and conflict, what role resilience factors play, and the extent to which these relationships are gendered. We will use extensive background data and statistical methods to compare youth from households and communities that were similar before the spread of Islamic violent conflict and before recent drought events.

Since an increasing number of people are living in areas that are extremely vulnerable to climate change and/or affected by conflict, understanding which resilience factors mitigate the relationship between climate, conflict and migration will be relevant for national policy makers and international development practitioners alike.