GDP and climate drive global migration to Nordic nations
A country’s economic condition and climate baseline shape its attractiveness as a migration destination, a new study finds. Migration and climate data from 160 countries over 40 years project Finland and Sweden among the top 10 for potential climate-related migration inflows.
It is already known that wealth and climate play a role in migration flows, but previous research results have focused on individual countries or regions. A new study involving both climatologists and social scientists from the University of Gothenburg, provides a global big-picture pattern by combining international migration data, economic indicators and climate factors.
”Our result shows that a country’s baseline climate and gross domestic product, GDP, jointly shape how migration responds to temperature changes," says Xiaoye Yang, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Gothenburg and main author of the study.
Sweden and Finland attractive destinations
By applying future climate and economic projections, the researchers estimate how climate change may influence global migration patterns in the coming decades. As the planet warms, countries in cooler, mid-to high-latitude regions are expected to attract more migrants.
”The Nordic region ranks among the countries most likely to experience climate-related inflows, along with Japan and Canada. Greater wealth and cooler mid- to high-latitude climate make these countries statistically more attractive as global temperatures rise,” says Xiaoye Yang.
Low GDP countries at low latitudes, such as Bangladesh and many countries in Southeast Asia, are projected to struggle the most in a warming world, likely pushing more people to move.
Climate migration comes with challenges
The researcher’s projection is intended to provide directional insights for policymakers. It doesn’t predict exact migration numbers for specific countries, since migration depends on many other factors such as policies, conflicts and social dynamics, the study points out.
”Understanding which regions are likely to attract new population, and which may see more people wanting to leave, allow governments, communities, and international organizations to plan,” says Ibrahim Wahab, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Gothenburg and one of the authors of the study.
Migrating to another country due to climate change is an adaptation strategy that comes with challenges. The researchers point out that migrants face social, cultural, and economic hurdles while host regions may experience pressure on infrastructure and services. The countries losing population can face labor shortages and reduced economic productivity. Migration can also have benefits for both sides, since migrants may contribute through remittances to their home countries, and nations with an ageing labor force may gain skilled workers through immigration.
”Ensuring migration occurs fairly and safely is essential to balance the opportunities and challenges it brings,” says Ibrahim Wahab.
Read the full study: The study was conducted within the CLIMIG research program, which is funded by the Swedish Research Council. ”Evidence of climate and economic drivers affecting migration in an unequal and warming world”, published in the scientific journal Nature Communications - Earth & Environment.
How the study was done
The researchers used simple but widely accepted statistical tools such as correlations and multiple regression analysis. The analysis drew on net migration data for 160 countries from the United Nations, combined with extreme temperature data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. By linking migration, economic conditions, and climate factors, and then applying future climate and economic projections, the team built a mathematical model to estimate how climate change may influence migration patterns in the coming decades.
For more information, please contact:
Xiaoye Yang, Postdoctoral researcher, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, email: xiaoye.yang@gu.se
Anders Burman, Professor of Human Ecology, School of Global Studies, Principal Investigator of the CLIMIG interdisciplinary research program, University of Gothenburg, email: anders.burman@globalstudies.gu.se
Ibrahim Wahab, Postdoctoral researcher, School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg, email: ibrahim.wahab@gu.se
Photo: Nayeemibnmatiur, Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons
- Safe and legal migration pathways: Create programs that allow people to move without risking exploitation or unsafe conditions.
- Targeted adaptation support: Invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, early-warning systems, and livelihoods in vulnerable regions to reduce forced migration pressures.
- International cooperation and funding: Richer nations can provide financial and technical support to help vulnerable countries adapt, reflecting the principle that those least responsible for present climate impacts should not bear the greatest costs.
- Inclusive policy planning: Ensure that migration policies consider the needs of marginalized groups, including women, children, and low-income populations.
