Change of government in Hungary: “Perhaps the EU’s foremost enfant terrible is gone”

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Over the past year, security issues have continued to dominate the EU agenda, alongside matters related to the green transition, the economy, and competitiveness. These are policy areas that Markus Johansson, a researcher in political science, follows particularly closely.

“There are already several initiatives aimed at simplifying regulations for industry and other sectors. It will be interesting to see whether these could lead to lowered ambitions in environmental and climate policy,” he says.

Many issues within the EU are interconnected. Adjustments made to achieve certain goals in one area may have consequences for goal attainment in others. Markus Johansson is interested in why member states sometimes violate the rules and how this affects cooperation, particularly in the fields of environment and climate.

“Non-compliance may be linked to national political interests taking precedence, and to countries sometimes interpreting EU rules generously rather than deliberately breaching them. In some cases, however, it is more a matter of a member state lacking the capacity to implement decisions correctly. There are several mechanisms for detecting and addressing such cases. The European Commission monitors whether member states comply with EU law and can initiate so-called infringement proceedings when shortcomings are identified. Ultimately, these cases may be decided by the Court of Justice of the European Union.”

Challenging to study compliance

Many cases are, however, resolved through dialogue between the Commission and the member state before reaching the Court. Violations may also come to light when national courts request preliminary rulings from the Court of Justice on how EU law should be interpreted.

According to Markus Johansson, researching compliance in the EU is challenging.

“It is difficult to measure because some violations are simply not detected. Most research also relies on data indicating that infringement proceedings have been initiated by the Commission. But sometimes the Commission is simply wrong in its allegations, and in cases that go all the way to the Court of Justice, the Commission occasionally loses. Hungary has, however, received two rulings against it this spring – one concerning violation of media freedom and another concerning breaches of the EU’s fundamental values, such as respect for human rights and minorities.”

Change of government in Hungary may be positive

Over the years, Hungary has blocked important EU decisions, for example on issues related to Ukraine. Former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was known for his confrontational stance toward the EU, his opposition to immigration, and his close ties to Moscow. The country has long been criticized for shortcomings regarding the rule of law, judicial independence, media freedom, and anti-corruption efforts.

In April 2026, Viktor Orbán and his nationalist-populist party Fidesz lost power after 16 years in government. Péter Magyar and his opposition party Tisza won by a large margin, and in his victory speech Magyar promised to strengthen cooperation with the EU.

What does Péter Magyar mean by that?

“It is both a political signal directed at the previous government and a message to the EU. On the one hand, it involves reforming institutions to strengthen the rule of law and combat corruption, which could lead to Hungary’s frozen EU funds being released. On the other hand, Hungary may become a more constructive actor and less of an obstacle in EU decision-making.”

Recently, Hungary supported an EU decision to grant a substantial loan to Ukraine. At the same time, Markus Johansson emphasizes that it remains to be seen what the new government will deliver.

“Regardless of the direction the new government takes, the shift in power in Hungary means that perhaps the EU’s foremost enfant terrible is gone, which could open the way for a more cooperative relationship between the EU and Hungary. At the same time, Hungary is a relatively small actor in the EU’s day-to-day negotiations. Many decisions are taken by qualified majority, which means that larger member states often have greater influence than small and medium-sized countries,” he says.