Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the Return of Economic Nationalism: Lessons from Argentina’s Interwar Period (1912–1938)

This project explores how tariff policies influence political dynamics in times of global economic disruption. Drawing parallels with current trade tensions—such as those triggered by the Trump administration’s tariff increases—it investigates the political consequences of protectionism in a major developing country during a similarly volatile historical period. By using newly assembled, high-frequency product-level data, the project analyzes how changes in tariffs and imports influenced political realignment at the local level in Argentina, particularly the rise and consolidation of nationalist sentiment.

While most research on trade wars focuses on developed nations, this study brings much-needed attention to the effects of protectionism in the Global South. Argentina provides a compelling case: after enormously benefiting from global trade before 1913, it experienced a sharp economic and political transformation in response to the collapses of international trade of the interwar period. The project situates this shift within broader debates on globalization’s winners and losers, highlighting how trade disruptions can fuel nationalism and reshape economic policy. Through a historical lens, it aims to inform present-day discussions on trade, economic fragility, and democratic stability in an increasingly fragmented world economy.