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Benefits of using an optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty - A pulp mill example

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Författare Elin Svensson
Thore Berntsson
Ann-Brith Strömberg
Publicerad i Energy Policy
Volym 37
Nummer/häfte 3
Sidor 813-824
ISSN 0301-4215
Publiceringsår 2009
Publicerad vid Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematik
Sidor 813-824
Språk en
Länkar dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.10....
Ämnesord process integration, stochastic programming, investment planning
Ämneskategorier Optimeringslära, systemteori, Kemisk energiteknik, Övrig industriell teknik och ekonomi, Pappers-, massa- och fiberteknik

Sammanfattning

This paper presents a case study on the optimization of process integration investments in a pulp mill considering uncertainties in future electricity and biofuel prices and CO2 emissions charges. The work follows the methodology described in Svensson et al. [Svensson, E., Berntsson, T., Strömberg, A.-B., Patriksson, M., 2008b. An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty. Accepted for publication in EnergyPolicy] where a scenario-based approach is proposed for the modelling of uncertainties. The results show that the proposed methodology provides a way to handle the time dependence and the uncertainties of the parameters. For the analyzed case, a robust solution is found which turns out to be a combination of two opposing investment strategies. The difference between short-term and strategic views for the investment decision is analyzed and it is found that uncertainties are increasingly important to account for as a more strategic view is employed. Furthermore, the results imply that the obvious effect of policy instruments aimed at decreasing CO2 emissions is, in applications like this, an increased profitability for all energy efficiency investments, and not as much a shift between different alternatives.

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