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Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Författare H. Landquist
J. Norrman
A. Lindhe
Tommy Norberg
I. M. Hassellov
J. F. Lindgren
L. Rosen
Publicerad i Marine Pollution Bulletin
Volym 125
Nummer/häfte 1-2
Sidor 399-415
ISSN 0025-326X
Publiceringsår 2017
Publicerad vid Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper
Sidor 399-415
Språk en
Länkar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul...
Ämnesord Shipwreck risk assessment, Expert elicitation, VRAKA, SHELF, Bayesian updating, fault-tree model, judgment, distributions, guide, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Marine & Freshwater Biology
Ämneskategorier Marin ekologi, Limnisk ekologi, Ekologi, Miljövetenskap

Sammanfattning

The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating.

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