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Internal validation of near-crashes in naturalistic driving studies: a continuous and multivariate approach

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Författare Jenny Jonasson
Holger Rootzén
Publicerad i Accident Analysis and Prevention
Volym 62
Sidor 102-109
ISSN 0001-4575
Publiceringsår 2014
Publicerad vid Institutionen för matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik
Sidor 102-109
Språk en
Länkar dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.09.01...
Ämnesord Traffic safety, Rear-ending crash, Crash surrogate, Selection bias, Naturalistic driving study, Extreme value statistics
Ämneskategorier Farkostteknik, Sannolikhetsteori och statistik

Sammanfattning

Large naturalistic driving studies give extremely detailed insight into how traffic accidents happen and what causes them. However, even in very large studies there are only relatively few crashes. Hence one additionally selects and studies crash surrogates, so called “near-crashes”, i.e. situations when a crash almost happened. The selection procedures invariably entail severe risks of causing bias. In this paper we use extreme value statistics to develop two methods to study the extent and form of this bias. The methods are applied to a large naturalistic driving study, the 100-car study. Both methods identified a severe discrepancy between the rear-striking near-crashes and the rear-striking crashes. Perhaps surprisingly, one conclusion is that, for rear-striking and in this study, the crashes have little relevance for increasing traffic safety. We believe substantial efforts should be made to develop statistical methods for using near-crashes and crashes in future large naturalistic driving studies (such as the SHRP2 study).

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