The presentation will concern how one form of information regarding electoral competition that voters are exposed to in the run up to elections – namely opinion polls – can influence an individual's voting behaviour. Pollsters release (often contradictory) projections regularly in the run up to elections and while some states have taken the step to limit or outright ban this information as polling day approaches, there is still relatively little understood about their possible effects. This has the potential to become even more problematic in contexts where the partiality and integrity of the organisations producing and spreading this information is in question. Stephen will present the preliminary results from a conjoint analysis and a survey experiment conducted in Turkey that address whether, how, and in what ways the perceived credibility of polls can affect vote choice and turnout likelihood.
Friday 23 October
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