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The Amplified Arctic Warming in the Recent Decades may Have Been Overestimated by CMIP5 Models

Journal article
Authors Jianbin Huang
Tinghai Ou
Deliang Chen
Yong Luo
Zongci Zhao
Published in Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 46
Issue 22
Pages 13338-13345
ISSN 0094-8276
Publication year 2019
Published at Department of Earth Sciences
Pages 13338-13345
Language en
Links https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL08438...
Subject categories Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Abstract

©2019. The Authors. Realistically representing the Arctic amplification in global climate models (GCMs) represents a key to accurately predict the climate system's response to increasing anthropogenic forcings. We examined the amplified Arctic warming over the past century simulated by 36 state-of-the-art GCMs against observation. We found a clear difference between the simulations and the observation in terms of the evolution of the secular warming rates. The observed rates of the secular Arctic warming increase from 0.14 °C/10a in the early 1890s to 0.21 °C/10a in the mid-2010s, while the GCMs show a negligible trend to 0.35 °C/10a at the corresponding times. The overestimation of the secular warming rate in the GCMs starts from the mid-twentieth century and aggravates with time. Further analysis indicates that the overestimation mainly comes from the exaggerated heating contribution from the Arctic sea ice melting. This result implies that the future secular Arctic warming may have been over-projected.

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