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Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue

Journal article
Authors R. Y. Li
L. Xu
O. N. Bjornstad
K. K. Liu
T. Song
Aifang Chen
B. Xu
Q. Y. Liu
N. C. Stenseth
Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume 116
Issue 9
Pages 3624-3629
ISSN 0027-8424
Publication year 2019
Published at Department of Earth Sciences
Pages 3624-3629
Language en
Links dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1806094116
Keywords dengue fever, climate variation, mosquito density, integrated modeling approach, aedes-aegypti, el-nino, precipitation, temperature
Subject categories Climate Research

Abstract

Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with increasing geographic extent and human incidence. Although the climate-epidemic association and outbreak risks have been assessed using both statistical and mathematical models, local mosquito population dynamics have not been incorporated in a unified predictive framework. Here, we use mosquito surveillance data from 2005 to 2015 in China to integrate a generalized additive model of mosquito dynamics with a susceptible-infectedrecovered (SIR) compartmental model of viral transmission to establish a predictive model linking climate and seasonal dengue risk. The findings illustrate that spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue are predictable from the local vector dynamics, which in turn, can be predicted by climate conditions. On the basis of the similar epidemiology and transmission cycles, we believe that this integrated approach and the finer mosquito surveillance data provide a framework that can be extended to predict outbreak risk of other mosquito-borne diseases as well as project dengue risk maps for future climate scenarios.

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