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Keeping the Democratic Façade: Contemporary Autocratization as a Game of Deception

Working paper
Authors Anna Lührmann
Staffan I. Lindberg
Publisher V-Dem Working Paper No. 75. University of Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy Institute.
Place of publication Gothenburg
Publication year 2018
Published at Department of Political Science
V-Dem Institute
Language en
Links https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_p...
Subject categories Political Science

Abstract

Less than thirty years after Fukuyama and others declared liberal democracy’s eternal dominance, a third wave of autocratization is manifest. Gradual declines of democratic regime attributes characterize contemporary autocratization. Yet, we lack the appropriate conceptual and empirical tools to diagnose and compare such elusive processes. Addressing that gap, this paper provides the first comprehensive empirical overview of all autocratization episodes from 1900 to today based on data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem). We demonstrate that a third wave of autocratization is indeed unfolding. It mainly affects democracies with gradual setbacks under a legal façade. While this is a cause for concern, the historical perspective presented in this paper shows that panic is not warranted: the current declines are relatively mild and the global share of democratic countries remains close to its all-time high. As it was premature to announce the “end of history” in 1992, it is premature to proclaim the “end of democracy” now.

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