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Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey

Journal article
Authors A. J. Healy
Mikael J Persson
E. Snowberg
Published in American Political Science Review
Volume 111
Issue 4
Pages 771-785
ISSN 0003-0554
Publication year 2017
Published at Department of Political Science
Pages 771-785
Language en
Links doi.org/10.1017/s0003055417000314
Keywords swedish parliamentary election, personal-experience, presidential, elections, mass-media, perceptions, macropartisanship, unemployment, approval, support, sweden, Government & Law, OCK JAMES H., 2012, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, V20, P518
Subject categories Political Science

Abstract

To paint a fuller picture of economic voters, we combine personal income records with a representative election survey. We examine three central topics in the economic voting literature: pocketbook versus sociotropic voting, the effects of partisanship on economic evaluations, and voter myopia. First, we show that voters who appear in survey data to be voting based on the national economy are, in fact, voting equally on the basis of their personal financial conditions. Second, there is strong evidence of both partisan bias and economic information in economic evaluations, but personal economic data is required to separate the two. Third, although in experiments and aggregate historical data recent economic conditions appear to drive vote choice, we find no evidence of myopia when we examine actual personal economic data.

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