To the top

Page Manager: Webmaster
Last update: 9/11/2012 3:13 PM

Tell a friend about this page
Print version

Confirmation: What's in t… - University of Gothenburg, Sweden Till startsida
To content Read more about how we use cookies on

Confirmation: What's in the evidence?

Journal article
Authors Mitesh Kataria
Published in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics
Volume 65
Pages 9-15
ISSN 2214-8043
Publication year 2016
Published at Department of Economics
Pages 9-15
Language en
Links 10.1016/j.socec.2016.09.004
Keywords Subjective beliefs, Evidence, Prediction, Postdiction, Retrodiction, hypotheses
Subject categories Economics and Business


The difference between accommodated evidence (i.e., when evidence is known first and then a hypothesis is proposed to explain and fit the observations) and predicted evidence (i.e., when evidence verifies the prediction of a hypothesis formulated before observing the evidence) is investigated in this article. According to the purely logical approach of Bayesian confirmation theory, accommodated and predicted evidence constitute equally strong confirmation. Using a survey experiment on a sample of students, however, it is shown that predicted evidence is perceived to constitute stronger confirmation than accommodated evidence. The results show that predictions work as a signal about the scientists' (the proposer of the hypothesis) knowledge which in turn provides stronger confirmation. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Page Manager: Webmaster|Last update: 9/11/2012

The University of Gothenburg uses cookies to provide you with the best possible user experience. By continuing on this website, you approve of our use of cookies.  What are cookies?