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Trends in extreme precipitation indices across China detected using quantile regression

Journal article
Authors L. J. Fan
Deliang Chen
Published in Atmospheric Science Letters
Volume 17
Issue 7
Pages 400-406
ISSN 1530-261X
Publication year 2016
Published at Department of Earth Sciences
Pages 400-406
Language en
Keywords extreme precipitation indices, quantile trend, quantile regression, China, climate data, temperature, 20th-century, homogeneity, series, Geochemistry & Geophysics, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Subject categories Geophysics, Geochemistry, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences


For China, long-term changes are detected not only in the means of eight extreme precipitation indices, but also in their distribution shapes by quantile regression. This resulted in different trends for the means and other aspects of the index distributions. The differences between changes in the means and upper/lower extremes vary with region and index. A noteworthy feature is that changes in upper tails of the index distributions across a broad area, especially in the south, are at a much higher rate than mean trends estimated by the traditional linear regression model. This has practical implications for disaster risk management.

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