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Improving Long-Term Investment Decisions under Uncertainty: Applications for the Swedish Energy Sector

Journal article
Authors Per-Anders Bergendahl
Lars Brigelius
Peter Rosén
Published in The Energy Journal
Volume 9
Issue 2
Pages 57-73
Publication year 1988
Published at Department of Business Administration
Department of Economics
Pages 57-73
Language en
Links www.jstor.org/stable/41970451
Keywords Investment under uncertainty, Fuel prices, MARKAL-model
Subject categories Business Administration

Abstract

Assumptions about future conditions (e.g. fuel prices) are more or less uncertain. Since energy investments projects most often are characterized by hihg costs and a planned long term uitilization, misallocation of resources may be very expensive. Using the MARKAL model, a number of stylized examples are provided in order to illustrate the economic consequences of misjudgments. Furthermore, possible guidelines for decision-making under uncertainty are illustrated. Finally the boundaries of this analytical approach are highlighted.

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