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The Future Energy System - A Problem of Planning under Uncertainty

Conference paper
Authors Per-Anders Bergendahl
Lars Brigelius
Peter Rosén
Published in In: Kydes AS, Gereghty DM, editors. Energy markets in the longer-term: planning under uncertainty—proceedings of the IMACS second international symposium. Amsterdam: North-Holland; 1985. p. 253–60.
Pages 8
Publication year 1985
Published at Department of Business Administration
Department of Economics
Pages 8
Language en
Keywords Decsion-making, uncertainty, energy system, MARKAL
Subject categories Business Administration

Abstract

Assumptions about future conditions (e.g. fuel prices) are more or less uncertain. Since energy investment projects most often are characterised by high costs and a planned long term utilisation, missallocation of resources may be very expensive. Using the MARKAL model, a number of stylized examples are provided in order to illustrate the economic consequences of misjudgment. Furthermore, possible guidelines for decision-making under uncertainty are illustrated. Finally the boundaries of this analytical approach are highlighted.

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