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Modelling the Future: System Dynamics in the Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Care Pathway

Journal article
Authors Magdalena Claeson
Stefan Hallberg
Paul Holmström
Ann-Marie Wennberg
Helena Gonzalez
John Paoli
Published in Acta dermato-venereologica
Volume 96
Issue 2
Pages 181-185
ISSN 1651-2057
Publication year 2016
Published at Institute of Clinical Sciences, Department of Dermatology and Venereology
Pages 181-185
Language en
Links dx.doi.org/10.2340/00015555-2222
Subject categories Dermatology and Venereal Diseases

Abstract

Incidence rates for cutaneous malignant melanoma are increasing worldwide. Estimates of the future number of melanoma cases are important for strategic planning of the care pathway. The aim of this study was to use system dynamics modelling to evaluate the long-term effects of changes in incidence, population growth and preventive interventions. Historical data on invasive melanoma cases in Western Sweden from 1990 to 2006 were obtained. Using computer simulation software, a model estimating the accumulated number of melanoma cases for 2014 to 2023 was developed. Five future scenarios were designed: stable incidence, business-as-usual, 25% reduced patient's delay, 50% reduced doctor's delay, and a combination of the last 2, called improved overall secondary prevention. After 10 years, improved overall secondary prevention would have resulted in a 42% decrease in melanomas > 4 mm and a 10% increase in melanomas ≤ 1 mm, compared with business-as-usual. System dynamics is a valuable tool, which can help policymakers choose the preventive interventions with the greatest impact.

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