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Global change impacts on groundwater in Southern Germany-Part 2: Socioeconomic aspects

Journal article
Authors Roland Barthel
T. Krimly
M. Elbers
A. Soboll
J. Wackerbauer
R. Hennicker
S. Janisch
T. G. Reichenau
S. Dabbert
J. Schmude
A. Ernst
W. Mauser
Published in Grundwasser
Volume 16
Issue 4
Pages 259-268
ISSN 1430-483X
Publication year 2011
Published at Department of Earth Sciences
Pages 259-268
Language en
Links dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00767-011-0180-...
Keywords Danube, Global climate change, Groundwater, Integrated modelling, Scenarios, Socioeconomics, agricultural practice, catchment, climate change, climate effect, global change, hydrological change, hydrological cycle, hydrological response, integrated approach, land use change, nature-society relations, numerical model, research work, socioeconomic impact, tourism, water quality, water supply, water use, Danube Basin, Germany
Subject categories Hydrology, Water in nature and society

Abstract

In order to account for complex interactions between humans climate and the water cycle, the research consortium GLOWA-Danube http://www. glowa-danube. de has developed the simulation system DANUBIA which consists of 17 coupled models. DANUBIA was applied to investigate various impacts of global-change between 2011 and 2060 in the Upper Danube Catchment. This article describes part 2 of an article series with investigations of socio-economic aspects, while part 1 (Barthel et al. in Grundwasser 16(4), doi:10. 1007/s007-011-01794, 2011) deals with natural-spatial aspects. The principles of socio-economic actor-modeling and interactions between socio-economic and natural science model components are described here. We present selected simulations that show impacts on groundwater from changes in agriculture, tourism, economy, domestic water users and water supply. Despite decreases in water consumption, the scenario simulations show significant decreases in groundwater quantity. On the other hand, groundwater quality will likely be influenced more severely by land use changes compared to direct climatic causes. However, overall changes will not be dramatic. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

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