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Robust outbreak surveillance of epidemics in Sweden

Journal article
Authors Marianne Frisén
Eva M. Andersson
Linus Schiöler
Published in Statistics in Medicine
Volume 28
Issue 3
Pages 476-493
ISSN 0277-6715
Publication year 2009
Published at Department of Economics, Statistical Research Unit
Pages 476-493
Language en
Links dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.3483
Keywords exponential family, influenza, monitoring, ordered regression, subjective judgment, tularaemia
Subject categories Statistics

Abstract

Outbreak detection is of interest in connection with several diseases and syndromes. The aim is to detect the progressive increase in the incidence as soon as possible after the onset of the outbreak. A semiparametric method is applied to Swedish data on tularaemia and influenza. The method is constructed to detect a change from a constant level to a monotonically increasing incidence. If seasonal effects are present, the residuals from a model incorporating these can be used. The properties of the method are evaluated by application to Swedish data on tularaemia and influenza and by simulations. The suggested method is compared with subjective judgments as well as with other algorithms. The conclusion is that the method works well. A user-friendly computer program is described.

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