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INDIA IN THE COMING ‘CLIMATE G2’?

Journal article
Authors Thomas Sterner
Jonathan Camuzeaux
Gernot Wagner
Published in National Institute Economic Review
Volume 251
Issue February 2020
Pages R3-R12
ISSN 0027-9501
Publication year 2020
Published at Department of Economics, Environmental Economics Unit
Pages R3-R12
Language en
Links https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10....
Keywords India, China, G2, climate club, carbon emissions trading, allowance allocation, burden sharing, climate change.
Subject categories Economics

Abstract

China and the United States are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, making them pivotal players in global climate negotiations. Within the coming decade, however, India is set to become the most important counterpart to the United States, as it overtakes China as the country with the most at stake depending on the type of global burden-sharing agreements reached, thus becoming a member of the ‘Climate G2’. We create a hypothetical global carbon market based on modelling emissions reduction commitments across countries and regions relative to their marginal abatement costs. We then analyse net financial flows across a wide range of burden-sharing agreements, from pure ‘grandfathering’ based on current emissions to equal-per-capita allocation. Among the four largest players – the United States, the EU-27, China, and India – it is China that would currently be the largest net seller of emissions allowances in all but the grandfathered scenario. The United States would be the largest net buyer. However, India is poised to take China’s position by around 2030. That leaves the United States and India as the two major countries with most to gain and lose, depending on the type of climate deal reached.

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