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How Do Tropical, Northern Hemispheric, and Southern Hemispheric Volcanic Eruptions Affect ENSO Under Different Initial Ocean Conditions?

Journal article
Authors Fei Liu
Chen Xing
Liying Sun
Bin Wang
Deliang Chen
Jian Liu
Published in Geophysical Research Letters
Volume 45
Issue 23
Pages 13041-13049
ISSN 0094-8276
Publication year 2018
Published at Department of Earth Sciences
Pages 13041-13049
Language en
Keywords ENSO, ENSO reconstruction, initial ocean condition, millennium simulation, volcanic cooling, volcano type
Subject categories Earth and Related Environmental Sciences


©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Current understanding of volcanic effects on El Niño–Southern Oscillation in terms of eruption type and initial ocean condition (IOC) remains elusive. We use last-millennium proxy reconstructions to show how volcanic impacts depend on eruption type and IOC. When the IOC is not a strong El Niño, it is likely that an El Niño will mature in the second winter following 79% (p < 0.01) of Northern Hemispheric eruptions and in the first winter following 81% (p < 0.01) of tropical and 69% of Southern Hemispheric eruptions. For a strong El Niño-IOC, no significant El Niño will occur in the first winter after any type of eruption. The eruptions need to be large enough to cause these diverse effects. Our last-millennium simulation confirms the IOC effect, except that a La Niña occurs in the first winter following most tropical eruptions due to overestimated volcanic cooling in the model.

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