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Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks

Journal article
Authors H. Landquist
J. Norrman
A. Lindhe
Tommy Norberg
I. M. Hassellov
J. F. Lindgren
L. Rosen
Published in Marine Pollution Bulletin
Volume 125
Issue 1-2
Pages 399-415
ISSN 0025-326X
Publication year 2017
Published at Department of Mathematical Sciences
Pages 399-415
Language en
Keywords Shipwreck risk assessment, Expert elicitation, VRAKA, SHELF, Bayesian updating, fault-tree model, judgment, distributions, guide, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Marine & Freshwater Biology
Subject categories Marine ecology, Freshwater ecology, Ecology, Environmental Sciences


The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating.

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