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Climate variability and infectious diseases nexus: Evidence from Sweden

Journal article
Authors Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah
George Marbuah
Mwenya Mubanga
Published in Infectious Disease Modelling
Volume 2
Pages 203-217
ISSN 24680427
Publication year 2017
Published at
Pages 203-217
Language en
Keywords Climate variability, Infectious diseases, Sweden
Subject categories Climate Research, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Economics


© 2017 KeAi Communications Co., Ltd Many studies on the link between climate variability and infectious diseases are based on biophysical experiments, do not account for socio-economic factors and with little focus on developed countries. This study examines the effect of climate variability and socio-economic variables on infectious diseases using data from all 21 Swedish counties. Employing static and dynamic modelling frameworks, we observe that temperature has a linear negative effect on the number of patients. The relationship between winter temperature and the number of patients is non-linear and “U” shaped in the static model. Conversely, a positive effect of precipitation on the number of patients is found, with modest heterogeneity in the effect of climate variables on the number of patients across disease classifications observed. The effect of education and number of health personnel explain the number of patients in a similar direction (negative), while population density and immigration drive up reported cases. Income explains this phenomenon non-linearly. In the dynamic setting, we found significant persistence in the number of infectious and parasitic-diseased patients, with temperature and income observed as the only significant drivers.

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