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Do Markets Trump Politics? Evidence from Fossil Market Reactions to the Paris Agreement and the U.S. Election

Authors Samson Mukanjari
Thomas Sterner
Publisher University of Gothenburg
Place of publication Gothenburg
Publication year 2018
Published at Department of Economics
Language en
Keywords Climate change, election, event study, impulse indicator saturation, Paris climate agreement, Trump
Subject categories Economics


The Paris Agreement was acclaimed as a milestone for climate negotiations. It has also been criticized – as too soft by environmentalists and too constraining by the current U.S. administration, which has decided to leave. The election of President Trump was itself widely interpreted as unexpected, good news for the fossil industry (and less good for the climate). We seek to evaluate the impact of global climate policy making by studying its effect on the stock market value of energy sector firms. In particular, we study the signing of the Paris Agreement and the latest U.S. presidential election. Using event study and impulse indicator saturation methods, we show that both events had only moderate effects.

Page Manager: Webmaster|Last update: 9/11/2012

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