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Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Journal article
Authors A. T. D. Perera
V. M. Nik
Deliang Chen
J. L. Scartezzini
T. Z. Hong
Published in Nature Energy
Volume 5
Pages 150-159
ISSN 2058-7546
Publication year 2020
Published at Department of Earth Sciences
Pages 150-159
Language en
Links dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-...
Keywords robust optimization, electrical hubs, decision-making, resilience, criteria, weather, design, Energy & Fuels, Materials Science
Subject categories Climate Research, Energy Systems

Abstract

Climate change will induce not just a change in average temperature but higher frequency of extreme weather events, whose impacts are hard to quantify. Perera et al. quantify the impacts of climate induced extreme and regular weather variations on energy systems determining requirements for system reliability. Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

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